Leading, Slipping, Gaining, Lagging Analysis:
Assessing Retail Trade Employment Growth
Across Colorado Counties
Retail Trade
Employment Growth
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2017 and 2017
Retail Trade
Employment Growth
Colorado:
2010-2017 = 1.30%
2017 = 0.48%
Borrowing from an approach that sometimes appears in the finance sections of the popular press, LSGL analysis is a handy and versatile way to compare, portray and classify the patterns of retail trade employment growth across all of Colorado's 64 counties. In finance, this technique is used for comparing and assessing the market performance of individual securities or across industry sectors. For example, the performance of the 30 stocks contained within Dow are compared with one another over the past week in contrast to their performance over the past month using the Dow's respective averages as the points of reference.
Here in this Colorado Regional Economic Analysis Project report, we adopt this approach to gauge and compare the retail trade employment growth of Colorado's 64 counties over the latest available year (2017) against the backdrop of their growth over the long term period (2010-2017). In so doing we classify their growth and performance into 4 broad categories: Leading, Slipping, Gaining and Lagging.
Retail Trade
Employment Growth
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2017 and 2017
Retail Trade
Employment Growth
Colorado:
2010-2017 = 1.30%
2017 = 0.48%
This figure displays the 64 counties of Colorado as dots on a scattergram, with the vertical axis representing the average annual retail trade employment growth rate over the long-term period (2010-2017), and the horizontal axis representing the retail trade employment growth rate for the near-term (2017).
This figure sets apart those counties whose long-term retail trade employment growth exceeded the statewide average of 1.30%, by portraying them in the top two quadrants demarcated at 1.30% on the vertical axis. County whose long-term average annual retail trade employment growth rate trailed the statewide average (1.30%) are distributed in the bottom two quadrants. In all, 19 counties surpassed the statewide average over 2010-2017, while 40 counties fell below.
Similarly, the two quadrants on the right of this figure present the positions of the 27 counties whose most recent (2017) retail trade employment growth rate exceeded the statewide average (0.48%). The two quadrants on the left feature those 32 counties whose retail trade employment growth over 2017 trailed the statewide average.
Accordingly, each quadrant portrays the performance of all 64 counties corresponding with their long-term (2010-2017) and near-term (2017) performance relative to their respective statewide averages of 1.30% over 2010-2017 and 0.48% over 2017:
Leading counties () (top-right quadrant)...are counties whose average annual retail trade employment growth rate surpassed the statewide average both long-term (1.30%) and near-term (0.48%).
Slipping counties () (top-left quadrant)...are counties whose long-term average annual retail trade employment growth rate exceeded the statewide average (1.30%), but whose near-term growth has "slipped" by falling below the Colorado average (0.48%).
Gaining counties () (bottom-right quadrant)...are counties whose long-term average annual retail trade employment growth rate fell below the statewide average (1.30%), but whose near-term growth has "gained" by registering above the average (0.48%) statewide.
Lagging counties () (bottom-left quadrant)...are counties whose average annual retail trade employment growth rate fell under the statewide average both long-term (1.30%) and near-term (0.48%).
   
 
Summary of Colorado's 64 County Totals
 
Short Term Average
 
 
Below
(0.48%)
Above
(0.48%)
 
Long
Term
Average
Above
(1.30%)
7
12
19
Below
(1.30%)
25
15
40
 
32
27
59
 
   
Leading Counties
2017 vs. 2010-2017 Averages
Leading Counties
Colorado:
2010-2017 = 1.30%
2017 = 0.48%
Turning attention to the top-right quadrant from the discussion above, this figure features the distribution of the Colorado counties classified as Leading. These counties surpassed Colorado's average annual retail trade employment growth both long-term (2010-2017 = 1.30%) as well as near-term (2017 = 0.48%). Each is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual retail trade employment growth rate over 2010-2017.
Of Colorado's 64 counties, 12 (19%) are classified within the Leading () category. Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Slipping Counties
2017 vs. 2010-2017 Averages
Slipping Counties
Colorado:
2010-2017 = 1.30%
2017 = 0.48%
This figure depicts the distribution of the 7 Colorado counties classified as Slipping (top-left quadrant), in that their long-term average annual retail trade employment growth rate outpaced the average statewide (2010-2017 = 1.30%), while they trailed the statewide average near-term (2017 = 0.48%). Again, each county is identified by it's corresponding ranking based on its average annual retail trade employment growth rate over 2010-2017.
Only 7 (11%) of Colorado's 64 counties are classified as Slipping (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Gaining Counties
2017 vs. 2010-2017 Averages
Gaining Counties
Colorado:
2010-2017 = 1.30%
2017 = 0.48%
This figure shows the distribution of the 15 Colorado counties classified as Gaining (bottom-right quadrant), in that their long-term average annual retail trade employment growth rate posted below the average statewide (2010-2017 = 1.30%), while they outpaced Colorado's average near-term (2017 = 0.48%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on its average annual retail trade employment growth rate over 2010-2017.
Of Colorado's 64 counties, 23% (15) are featured as Gaining (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Lagging Counties
2017 vs. 2010-2017 Averages
Lagging Counties
Colorado:
2010-2017 = 1.30%
2017 = 0.48%
This figure depicts the distributions of the 25 Colorado counties classified as Lagging (bottom-left quadrant). These counties trailed the statewide average annual retail trade employment growth both long-term (2010-2017 = 1.30%) as well as near-term (2017 = 0.48%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual retail trade employment growth rate over 2010-2017.
39% of Colorado's counties, 25 of 64, are characterized here as Lagging (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
   
 
Colorado
Retail Trade Employment Growth
County vs. Statewide Average
 
2010-2017
 
2017
 
 
Leading Counties
 
19
1.31
 
7
3.94
369
 
8
1.93
 
22
1.40
36,613
 
6
2.02
 
19
1.74
4,264
 
15
1.64
 
26
0.78
41,008
 
17
1.57
 
21
1.60
1,270
 
7
1.94
 
10
3.23
96
 
1
5.27
 
1
25.00
85
 
18
1.39
 
13
2.09
23,663
 
10
1.78
 
18
1.82
617
 
14
1.67
 
23
1.26
3,381
 
16
1.61
 
27
0.57
1,416
 
3
2.58
 
25
1.10
14,035
Slipping Counties
 
4
2.25
 
47
-0.98
24,643
 
13
1.72
 
31
0.38
41,715
 
11
1.78
 
39
-0.38
1,041
 
9
1.87
 
36
-0.06
23,124
 
5
2.03
 
52
-1.65
836
 
12
1.73
 
53
-2.51
272
 
2
2.86
 
57
-3.57
189
Gaining Counties
 
43
-0.16
 
14
2.06
5,601
 
32
0.60
 
9
3.25
1,463
 
28
0.93
 
11
2.53
2,233
 
48
-0.68
 
3
6.51
916
 
25
1.07
 
15
2.04
350
 
31
0.64
 
24
1.24
4,098
 
33
0.50
 
6
4.85
864
 
51
-0.89
 
28
0.54
373
 
23
1.16
 
12
2.35
1,393
 
54
-1.41
 
16
2.01
912
 
45
-0.44
 
5
6.13
277
 
20
1.26
 
17
2.01
507
 
27
0.96
 
29
0.52
9,405
 
58
-2.49
 
8
3.83
271
 
53
-1.21
 
20
1.65
556
Lagging Counties
 
42
-0.14
 
42
-0.45
1,320
 
57
-1.93
 
59
-7.10
157
 
36
0.30
 
54
-2.70
108
 
22
1.22
 
30
0.39
21,354
 
21
1.23
 
60
-7.83
106
 
41
-0.05
 
32
0.35
289
 
55
-1.42
 
55
-3.48
111
 
47
-0.65
 
43
-0.47
211
 
49
-0.71
 
40
-0.41
1,711
 
30
0.77
 
49
-1.10
90
 
44
-0.38
 
41
-0.42
3,791
 
34
0.40
 
44
-0.55
36,440
 
24
1.14
 
34
0.00
451
 
46
-0.53
 
58
-3.74
1,415
 
39
0.03
 
48
-1.07
10,093
 
56
-1.67
 
56
-3.53
874
 
26
1.02
 
50
-1.39
1,703
 
50
-0.85
 
46
-0.94
2,637
 
35
0.34
 
34
0.00
221
 
38
0.04
 
33
0.19
1,598
 
52
-1.20
 
38
-0.23
859
 
40
-0.01
 
37
-0.20
2,002
 
59
-4.32
 
61
-8.16
90
 
29
0.82
 
51
-1.40
212
 
37
0.24
 
45
-0.79
627
Undefined/Suppressed Counties
 
U
U
 
4
6.25
102
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
2
10.29
75
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1.30
 
0.48
336,762
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
0.97
 
0.12
19,222,200
November 2018
REAP_PI_CA1500N_510700_LSGL
 
   
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