Leading, Slipping, Gaining, Lagging Analysis:
Assessing Federal Civilian Earnings Growth
Across Colorado Counties
Real* Federal Civilian
Earnings Growth
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2022 and 2022
Real* Federal Civilian
Earnings Growth
Colorado:
2010-2022 = 3.09%
2022 = 4.24%
Borrowing from an approach that sometimes appears in the finance sections of the popular press, LSGL analysis is a handy and versatile way to compare, portray and classify the patterns of real federal civilian earnings growth across all of Colorado's 64 counties. In finance, this technique is used for comparing and assessing the market performance of individual securities or across industry sectors. For example, the performance of the 30 stocks contained within Dow are compared with one another over the past week in contrast to their performance over the past month using the Dow's respective averages as the points of reference.
Here in this Colorado Regional Economic Analysis Project report, we adopt this approach to gauge and compare the real federal civilian earnings growth of Colorado's 64 counties over the latest available year (2022) against the backdrop of their growth over the long term period (2010-2022). In so doing we classify their growth and performance into 4 broad categories: Leading, Slipping, Gaining and Lagging.
Real* Federal Civilian
Earnings Growth
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2022 and 2022
Real* Federal Civilian
Earnings Growth
Colorado:
2010-2022 = 3.09%
2022 = 4.24%
This figure displays the 64 counties of Colorado as dots on a scattergram, with the vertical axis representing the average annual real federal civilian earnings growth rate over the long-term period (2010-2022), and the horizontal axis representing the real federal civilian earnings growth rate for the near-term (2022).
This figure sets apart those counties whose long-term real federal civilian earnings growth exceeded the statewide average of 3.09%, by portraying them in the top two quadrants demarcated at 3.09% on the vertical axis. County whose long-term average annual real federal civilian earnings growth rate trailed the statewide average (3.09%) are distributed in the bottom two quadrants. In all, 15 counties surpassed the statewide average over 2010-2022, while 49 counties fell below.
Similarly, the two quadrants on the right of this figure present the positions of the 36 counties whose most recent (2022) real federal civilian earnings growth rate exceeded the statewide average (4.24%). The two quadrants on the left feature those 28 counties whose real federal civilian earnings growth over 2022 trailed the statewide average.
Accordingly, each quadrant portrays the performance of all 64 counties corresponding with their long-term (2010-2022) and near-term (2022) performance relative to their respective statewide averages of 3.09% over 2010-2022 and 4.24% over 2022:
Leading counties () (top-right quadrant)...are counties whose average annual real federal civilian earnings growth rate surpassed the statewide average both long-term (3.09%) and near-term (4.24%).
Slipping counties () (top-left quadrant)...are counties whose long-term average annual real federal civilian earnings growth rate exceeded the statewide average (3.09%), but whose near-term growth has "slipped" by falling below the Colorado average (4.24%).
Gaining counties () (bottom-right quadrant)...are counties whose long-term average annual real federal civilian earnings growth rate fell below the statewide average (3.09%), but whose near-term growth has "gained" by registering above the average (4.24%) statewide.
Lagging counties () (bottom-left quadrant)...are counties whose average annual real federal civilian earnings growth rate fell under the statewide average both long-term (3.09%) and near-term (4.24%).
   
 
Summary of Colorado's 64 County Totals
 
Short Term Average
 
 
Below
(4.24%)
Above
(4.24%)
 
Long
Term
Average
Above
(3.09%)
4
11
15
Below
(3.09%)
24
25
49
 
28
36
64
 
   
Leading Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Leading Counties
white dot
Colorado:
2010-2022 = 3.09%
2022 = 4.24%
Turning attention to the top-right quadrant from the discussion above, this figure features the distribution of the Colorado counties classified as Leading. These counties surpassed Colorado's average annual real federal civilian earnings growth both long-term (2010-2022 = 3.09%) as well as near-term (2022 = 4.24%). Each is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual real federal civilian earnings growth rate over 2010-2022.
Of Colorado's 64 counties, 11 (17%) are classified within the Leading () category. Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Slipping Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Slipping Counties
Colorado:
2010-2022 = 3.09%
2022 = 4.24%
This figure depicts the distribution of the 4 Colorado counties classified as Slipping (top-left quadrant), in that their long-term average annual real federal civilian earnings growth rate outpaced the average statewide (2010-2022 = 3.09%), while they trailed the statewide average near-term (2022 = 4.24%). Again, each county is identified by it's corresponding ranking based on its average annual real federal civilian earnings growth rate over 2010-2022.
Only 4 (6%) of Colorado's 64 counties are classified as Slipping (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Gaining Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Gaining Counties
white dot
Colorado:
2010-2022 = 3.09%
2022 = 4.24%
This figure shows the distribution of the 25 Colorado counties classified as Gaining (bottom-right quadrant), in that their long-term average annual real federal civilian earnings growth rate posted below the average statewide (2010-2022 = 3.09%), while they outpaced Colorado's average near-term (2022 = 4.24%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on its average annual real federal civilian earnings growth rate over 2010-2022.
Of Colorado's 64 counties, 39% (25) are featured as Gaining (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Lagging Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Lagging Counties
white dot
Colorado:
2010-2022 = 3.09%
2022 = 4.24%
This figure depicts the distributions of the 24 Colorado counties classified as Lagging (bottom-left quadrant). These counties trailed the statewide average annual real federal civilian earnings growth both long-term (2010-2022 = 3.09%) as well as near-term (2022 = 4.24%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual real federal civilian earnings growth rate over 2010-2022.
38% of Colorado's counties, 24 of 64, are characterized here as Lagging (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
   
 
Colorado
Real* Federal Civilian Earnings Growth
County vs. Statewide Average
 
2010-2022
 
2022
 
 
Leading Counties
 
1
12.47
 
13
11.22
528,482
 
15
3.14
 
24
7.40
433,101
 
14
3.21
 
17
9.38
6,097
 
9
3.50
 
20
8.78
17,945
 
11
3.40
 
34
5.12
4,171
 
2
6.63
 
1
48.68
70,056
 
3
6.57
 
3
17.54
1,012
 
6
3.80
 
23
7.55
6,868
 
4
4.68
 
19
8.93
234,427
 
12
3.33
 
28
6.43
40,230
 
5
4.47
 
2
20.87
6,995
Slipping Counties
 
7
3.69
 
61
-8.97
842
 
8
3.64
 
40
2.66
1,553,710
 
13
3.32
 
41
2.49
378,104
 
10
3.46
 
44
1.10
120,940
Gaining Counties
 
30
2.20
 
27
6.52
360,269
 
41
1.26
 
5
16.12
7,861
 
34
1.83
 
12
11.46
1,080
 
49
0.82
 
14
11.17
3,772
 
42
1.13
 
9
12.64
722
 
31
2.16
 
29
6.11
1,215
 
26
2.62
 
25
6.65
1,955,038
 
33
1.94
 
21
8.48
12,948
 
25
2.64
 
32
5.35
3,013
 
16
3.06
 
18
9.12
146,441
 
45
1.00
 
33
5.31
11,753
 
40
1.36
 
16
10.93
203
 
17
3.06
 
7
15.12
1,667
 
23
2.66
 
6
15.72
3,952
 
32
1.94
 
35
4.73
6,994
 
38
1.50
 
10
12.33
41,190
 
64
-1.82
 
36
4.31
1,476
 
48
0.84
 
22
8.10
5,327
 
46
0.95
 
8
13.28
15,524
 
27
2.57
 
26
6.53
1,925
 
43
1.10
 
31
5.53
7,102
 
24
2.66
 
15
11.00
4,106
 
56
0.21
 
4
16.95
3,787
 
20
2.80
 
11
12.32
67,843
 
55
0.25
 
30
5.74
3,498
Lagging Counties
 
58
0.00
 
53
-1.54
13,581
 
47
0.87
 
38
4.01
2,804
 
60
-0.68
 
54
-2.19
2,815
 
53
0.43
 
57
-3.28
649
 
36
1.56
 
48
0.24
17,999
 
54
0.31
 
55
-2.28
27,797
 
22
2.73
 
43
1.65
17,022
 
59
-0.54
 
47
0.37
2,414
 
35
1.81
 
60
-4.56
1,186,315
 
62
-0.77
 
59
-4.56
1,235
 
51
0.61
 
64
-13.30
326
 
19
2.89
 
37
4.10
37,101
 
61
-0.68
 
51
-1.02
10,410
 
57
0.11
 
46
0.89
8,625
 
28
2.39
 
63
-11.52
1,098
 
29
2.29
 
56
-2.46
9,592
 
50
0.66
 
39
2.92
3,036
 
21
2.79
 
42
2.01
12,188
 
37
1.55
 
52
-1.14
10,712
 
44
1.01
 
62
-9.48
105
 
52
0.44
 
50
-0.41
1,459
 
39
1.36
 
45
0.93
5,077
 
18
2.91
 
49
-0.02
5,725
 
63
-0.99
 
58
-3.80
2,938
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
3.09
 
4.24
7,452,709
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2.98
 
3.80
397,841,000
November 2023
REAP_PI_CA1600N_620100_LSGL
 
   
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