Leading, Slipping, Gaining, Lagging Analysis:
Assessing Manufacturing Earnings Growth
Across Colorado Counties
Real* Manufacturing
Earnings Growth
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2017 and 2017
Real* Manufacturing
Earnings Growth
Colorado:
2010-2017 = 3.29%
2017 = 2.89%
Borrowing from an approach that sometimes appears in the finance sections of the popular press, LSGL analysis is a handy and versatile way to compare, portray and classify the patterns of real manufacturing earnings growth across all of Colorado's 64 counties. In finance, this technique is used for comparing and assessing the market performance of individual securities or across industry sectors. For example, the performance of the 30 stocks contained within Dow are compared with one another over the past week in contrast to their performance over the past month using the Dow's respective averages as the points of reference.
Here in this Colorado Regional Economic Analysis Project report, we adopt this approach to gauge and compare the real manufacturing earnings growth of Colorado's 64 counties over the latest available year (2017) against the backdrop of their growth over the long term period (2010-2017). In so doing we classify their growth and performance into 4 broad categories: Leading, Slipping, Gaining and Lagging.
Real* Manufacturing
Earnings Growth
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2017 and 2017
Real* Manufacturing
Earnings Growth
Colorado:
2010-2017 = 3.29%
2017 = 2.89%
This figure displays the 64 counties of Colorado as dots on a scattergram, with the vertical axis representing the average annual real manufacturing earnings growth rate over the long-term period (2010-2017), and the horizontal axis representing the real manufacturing earnings growth rate for the near-term (2017).
This figure sets apart those counties whose long-term real manufacturing earnings growth exceeded the statewide average of 3.29%, by portraying them in the top two quadrants demarcated at 3.29% on the vertical axis. County whose long-term average annual real manufacturing earnings growth rate trailed the statewide average (3.29%) are distributed in the bottom two quadrants. In all, 28 counties surpassed the statewide average over 2010-2017, while 17 counties fell below.
Similarly, the two quadrants on the right of this figure present the positions of the 20 counties whose most recent (2017) real manufacturing earnings growth rate exceeded the statewide average (2.89%). The two quadrants on the left feature those 25 counties whose real manufacturing earnings growth over 2017 trailed the statewide average.
Accordingly, each quadrant portrays the performance of all 64 counties corresponding with their long-term (2010-2017) and near-term (2017) performance relative to their respective statewide averages of 3.29% over 2010-2017 and 2.89% over 2017:
Leading counties () (top-right quadrant)...are counties whose average annual real manufacturing earnings growth rate surpassed the statewide average both long-term (3.29%) and near-term (2.89%).
Slipping counties () (top-left quadrant)...are counties whose long-term average annual real manufacturing earnings growth rate exceeded the statewide average (3.29%), but whose near-term growth has "slipped" by falling below the Colorado average (2.89%).
Gaining counties () (bottom-right quadrant)...are counties whose long-term average annual real manufacturing earnings growth rate fell below the statewide average (3.29%), but whose near-term growth has "gained" by registering above the average (2.89%) statewide.
Lagging counties () (bottom-left quadrant)...are counties whose average annual real manufacturing earnings growth rate fell under the statewide average both long-term (3.29%) and near-term (2.89%).
   
 
Summary of Colorado's 64 County Totals
 
Short Term Average
 
 
Below
(2.89%)
Above
(2.89%)
 
Long
Term
Average
Above
(3.29%)
18
10
28
Below
(3.29%)
7
10
17
 
25
20
45
 
   
Leading Counties
2017 vs. 2010-2017 Averages
Leading Counties
Colorado:
2010-2017 = 3.29%
2017 = 2.89%
Turning attention to the top-right quadrant from the discussion above, this figure features the distribution of the Colorado counties classified as Leading. These counties surpassed Colorado's average annual real manufacturing earnings growth both long-term (2010-2017 = 3.29%) as well as near-term (2017 = 2.89%). Each is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual real manufacturing earnings growth rate over 2010-2017.
Of Colorado's 64 counties, 10 (16%) are classified within the Leading () category. Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Slipping Counties
2017 vs. 2010-2017 Averages
Slipping Counties
Colorado:
2010-2017 = 3.29%
2017 = 2.89%
This figure depicts the distribution of the 18 Colorado counties classified as Slipping (top-left quadrant), in that their long-term average annual real manufacturing earnings growth rate outpaced the average statewide (2010-2017 = 3.29%), while they trailed the statewide average near-term (2017 = 2.89%). Again, each county is identified by it's corresponding ranking based on its average annual real manufacturing earnings growth rate over 2010-2017.
Observe that 18 (28%) of Colorado's 64 counties are classified as Slipping (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Gaining Counties
2017 vs. 2010-2017 Averages
Gaining Counties
Colorado:
2010-2017 = 3.29%
2017 = 2.89%
This figure shows the distribution of the 10 Colorado counties classified as Gaining (bottom-right quadrant), in that their long-term average annual real manufacturing earnings growth rate posted below the average statewide (2010-2017 = 3.29%), while they outpaced Colorado's average near-term (2017 = 2.89%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on its average annual real manufacturing earnings growth rate over 2010-2017.
Of Colorado's 64 counties, 16% (10) are featured as Gaining (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Lagging Counties
2017 vs. 2010-2017 Averages
Lagging Counties
Colorado:
2010-2017 = 3.29%
2017 = 2.89%
This figure depicts the distributions of the 7 Colorado counties classified as Lagging (bottom-left quadrant). These counties trailed the statewide average annual real manufacturing earnings growth both long-term (2010-2017 = 3.29%) as well as near-term (2017 = 2.89%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual real manufacturing earnings growth rate over 2010-2017.
11% of Colorado's counties, 7 of 64, are characterized here as Lagging (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
   
 
Colorado
Real* Manufacturing Earnings Growth
County vs. Statewide Average
 
2010-2017
 
2017
 
 
Leading Counties
 
24
3.90
 
14
6.96
1,847,341
 
7
19.14
 
21
3.99
2,345
 
4
58.36
 
1
29.85
87
 
18
5.59
 
4
20.05
8,246
 
12
7.12
 
8
9.65
32,122
 
19
5.34
 
17
5.94
5,812
 
14
6.27
 
13
7.94
1,503,097
 
27
3.66
 
12
8.55
19,182
 
21
4.30
 
7
10.92
28,472
 
11
7.56
 
16
6.18
4,209
Slipping Counties
 
26
3.68
 
28
0.72
6,272
 
9
15.05
 
42
-12.38
4,913
 
13
7.01
 
33
-2.57
10,628
 
28
3.32
 
39
-11.08
19,946
 
17
5.64
 
30
-1.17
7,240
 
2
95.82
 
40
-11.72
256
 
22
4.19
 
26
1.97
3,723
 
23
4.04
 
29
-0.36
7,129
 
10
8.76
 
24
2.70
43,050
 
5
29.45
 
51
-60.25
43,848
 
25
3.83
 
25
2.39
68,113
 
16
5.90
 
23
2.82
186,682
 
6
23.16
 
45
-20.37
4,268
 
1
681.11
 
46
-22.01
1,442
 
8
16.91
 
35
-5.29
3,023
 
20
5.19
 
41
-11.81
8,653
 
15
6.19
 
32
-2.53
926,670
 
3
59.55
 
50
-46.92
16,236
Gaining Counties
 
31
2.98
 
19
4.67
646,476
 
36
2.57
 
11
8.65
22,639
 
35
2.65
 
18
5.66
1,580,356
 
39
1.58
 
5
17.57
1,030,061
 
45
-4.64
 
22
3.06
3,666
 
38
2.09
 
20
4.34
162,760
 
34
2.71
 
15
6.25
8,623
 
32
2.95
 
9
9.00
15,555
 
37
2.36
 
10
8.88
317,595
 
33
2.91
 
6
14.54
6,233
Lagging Counties
 
30
3.19
 
34
-3.74
1,029,799
 
44
-1.37
 
37
-10.86
477,396
 
40
0.93
 
31
-2.35
172,993
 
42
0.23
 
38
-11.01
43,979
 
29
3.26
 
27
1.01
2,269,115
 
43
-1.00
 
47
-25.22
3,262
 
41
0.45
 
48
-27.17
2,678
Undefined/Suppressed Counties
 
U
U
 
S
S
46
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
49
-27.50
3,032
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
36
-8.84
330
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
2
29.00
1,548
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
6,303
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
44
-16.22
1,389
 
U
U
 
3
26.32
11,265
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
43
-14.19
1,584
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
3.29
 
2.89
12,654,603
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2.99
 
3.81
1,093,461,000
November 2018
REAP_PI_CA1600N_610500_LSGL
 
   
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