Leading, Slipping, Gaining, Lagging Analysis:
Assessing Farm Earnings Growth
Across Colorado Counties
Real* Farm
Earnings Growth
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2022 and 2022
Real* Farm
Earnings Growth
Colorado:
2010-2022 = 2.76%
2022 = -55.78%
Borrowing from an approach that sometimes appears in the finance sections of the popular press, LSGL analysis is a handy and versatile way to compare, portray and classify the patterns of real farm earnings growth across all of Colorado's 64 counties. In finance, this technique is used for comparing and assessing the market performance of individual securities or across industry sectors. For example, the performance of the 30 stocks contained within Dow are compared with one another over the past week in contrast to their performance over the past month using the Dow's respective averages as the points of reference.
Here in this Colorado Regional Economic Analysis Project report, we adopt this approach to gauge and compare the real farm earnings growth of Colorado's 64 counties over the latest available year (2022) against the backdrop of their growth over the long term period (2010-2022). In so doing we classify their growth and performance into 4 broad categories: Leading, Slipping, Gaining and Lagging.
Real* Farm
Earnings Growth
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2022 and 2022
Real* Farm
Earnings Growth
Colorado:
2010-2022 = 2.76%
2022 = -55.78%
This figure displays the 64 counties of Colorado as dots on a scattergram, with the vertical axis representing the average annual real farm earnings growth rate over the long-term period (2010-2022), and the horizontal axis representing the real farm earnings growth rate for the near-term (2022).
This figure sets apart those counties whose long-term real farm earnings growth exceeded the statewide average of 2.76%, by portraying them in the top two quadrants demarcated at 2.76% on the vertical axis. County whose long-term average annual real farm earnings growth rate trailed the statewide average (2.76%) are distributed in the bottom two quadrants. In all, 40 counties surpassed the statewide average over 2010-2022, while 24 counties fell below.
Similarly, the two quadrants on the right of this figure present the positions of the 25 counties whose most recent (2022) real farm earnings growth rate exceeded the statewide average (-55.78%). The two quadrants on the left feature those 39 counties whose real farm earnings growth over 2022 trailed the statewide average.
Accordingly, each quadrant portrays the performance of all 64 counties corresponding with their long-term (2010-2022) and near-term (2022) performance relative to their respective statewide averages of 2.76% over 2010-2022 and -55.78% over 2022:
Leading counties () (top-right quadrant)...are counties whose average annual real farm earnings growth rate surpassed the statewide average both long-term (2.76%) and near-term (-55.78%).
Slipping counties () (top-left quadrant)...are counties whose long-term average annual real farm earnings growth rate exceeded the statewide average (2.76%), but whose near-term growth has "slipped" by falling below the Colorado average (-55.78%).
Gaining counties () (bottom-right quadrant)...are counties whose long-term average annual real farm earnings growth rate fell below the statewide average (2.76%), but whose near-term growth has "gained" by registering above the average (-55.78%) statewide.
Lagging counties () (bottom-left quadrant)...are counties whose average annual real farm earnings growth rate fell under the statewide average both long-term (2.76%) and near-term (-55.78%).
   
 
Summary of Colorado's 64 County Totals
 
Short Term Average
 
 
Below
(-55.78%)
Above
(-55.78%)
 
Long
Term
Average
Above
(2.76%)
25
15
40
Below
(2.76%)
14
10
24
 
39
25
64
 
   
Leading Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Leading Counties
white dot
Colorado:
2010-2022 = 2.76%
2022 = -55.78%
Turning attention to the top-right quadrant from the discussion above, this figure features the distribution of the Colorado counties classified as Leading. These counties surpassed Colorado's average annual real farm earnings growth both long-term (2010-2022 = 2.76%) as well as near-term (2022 = -55.78%). Each is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual real farm earnings growth rate over 2010-2022.
Of Colorado's 64 counties, 15 (23%) are classified within the Leading () category. Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Slipping Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Slipping Counties
Colorado:
2010-2022 = 2.76%
2022 = -55.78%
This figure depicts the distribution of the 25 Colorado counties classified as Slipping (top-left quadrant), in that their long-term average annual real farm earnings growth rate outpaced the average statewide (2010-2022 = 2.76%), while they trailed the statewide average near-term (2022 = -55.78%). Again, each county is identified by it's corresponding ranking based on its average annual real farm earnings growth rate over 2010-2022.
Observe that 25 (39%) of Colorado's 64 counties are classified as Slipping (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Gaining Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Gaining Counties
white dot
Colorado:
2010-2022 = 2.76%
2022 = -55.78%
This figure shows the distribution of the 10 Colorado counties classified as Gaining (bottom-right quadrant), in that their long-term average annual real farm earnings growth rate posted below the average statewide (2010-2022 = 2.76%), while they outpaced Colorado's average near-term (2022 = -55.78%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on its average annual real farm earnings growth rate over 2010-2022.
Of Colorado's 64 counties, 16% (10) are featured as Gaining (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Lagging Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Lagging Counties
white dot
Colorado:
2010-2022 = 2.76%
2022 = -55.78%
This figure depicts the distributions of the 14 Colorado counties classified as Lagging (bottom-left quadrant). These counties trailed the statewide average annual real farm earnings growth both long-term (2010-2022 = 2.76%) as well as near-term (2022 = -55.78%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual real farm earnings growth rate over 2010-2022.
22% of Colorado's counties, 14 of 64, are characterized here as Lagging (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
   
 
Colorado
Real* Farm Earnings Growth
County vs. Statewide Average
 
2010-2022
 
2022
 
 
Leading Counties
 
27
15.35
 
6
21.53
5,007
 
31
10.74
 
24
-49.26
9,107
 
29
13.12
 
20
-42.86
132
 
13
30.00
 
9
5.55
3,023
 
34
10.10
 
8
9.09
3,589
 
33
10.13
 
4
31.50
4,266
 
24
17.11
 
17
-29.22
5,232
 
38
6.24
 
3
32.87
6,811
 
39
3.98
 
16
-29.09
25,744
 
11
51.29
 
2
53.75
512
 
19
19.65
 
21
-43.50
62,883
 
1
1,371.55
 
7
12.57
2,714
 
40
3.03
 
25
-55.73
19,080
 
9
78.01
 
5
28.75
-399
 
36
7.59
 
15
-15.39
398,120
Slipping Counties
 
25
16.23
 
30
-66.14
8,204
 
30
12.41
 
54
-110.02
-2,630
 
21
18.96
 
33
-67.50
10,521
 
16
25.42
 
37
-78.61
4,546
 
14
29.40
 
49
-95.83
99
 
4
167.31
 
44
-91.27
245
 
3
409.24
 
43
-85.56
470
 
20
19.46
 
41
-84.13
861
 
10
59.30
 
56
-131.60
-967
 
22
18.58
 
35
-72.94
9,066
 
12
37.77
 
51
-102.61
-1,542
 
5
147.64
 
31
-66.72
2,073
 
7
91.12
 
45
-91.85
1,325
 
28
13.72
 
46
-93.48
3,319
 
26
15.39
 
26
-56.92
8,222
 
32
10.37
 
52
-103.19
-282
 
6
110.87
 
58
-153.66
-6,744
 
17
24.57
 
34
-72.84
4,742
 
8
78.52
 
39
-82.33
4,307
 
23
18.33
 
48
-94.71
743
 
35
8.44
 
40
-83.54
784
 
37
6.67
 
42
-85.16
6,342
 
2
411.74
 
53
-106.63
-1,051
 
15
25.72
 
36
-73.34
8,423
 
18
22.97
 
47
-93.71
4,256
Gaining Counties
 
41
2.49
 
22
-44.15
29,809
 
53
-3.08
 
23
-45.99
3,618
 
42
2.43
 
14
-11.74
9,238
 
45
0.00
 
10
0.00
0
 
45
0.00
 
10
0.00
0
 
45
0.00
 
10
0.00
0
 
59
-75.39
 
18
-29.72
-1,257
 
55
-23.84
 
1
95.89
-197
 
45
0.00
 
10
0.00
0
 
52
-1.71
 
19
-37.75
-2,175
Lagging Counties
 
49
-0.65
 
38
-78.68
5,903
 
56
-29.04
 
55
-123.84
-3,033
 
50
-0.66
 
27
-60.69
7,120
 
60
-75.43
 
59
-203.38
-449
 
44
0.85
 
57
-150.49
-2,801
 
54
-19.96
 
28
-61.44
-35,214
 
57
-45.85
 
62
-993.80
-5,819
 
61
-83.54
 
50
-96.40
-709
 
63
-167.01
 
63
-1,024.33
-2,431
 
62
-137.50
 
61
-864.27
-11,822
 
43
0.91
 
32
-67.34
6,656
 
64
-213.72
 
64
-1,903.66
-1,643
 
51
-1.14
 
29
-61.98
14,255
 
58
-54.21
 
60
-282.82
-869
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2.76
 
-55.78
619,333
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
7.08
 
5.51
114,272,000
November 2023
REAP_PI_CA1600N_500000_LSGL
 
   
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