Baca County vs. Colorado Comparative Trends Analysis: Population Growth and Change, 1969-2022 Introduction Baca County: 2022 Population = 3,432 2022 Percent of State = 0.06% Colorado: 2022 Population = 5,839,926 2022 Percent of U.S. = 1.75% Attracting and retaining people to live, work, raise a family, and retire underlies the economic vitality of any region. Population growth is both a cause--and a consequence--of economic growth. Patterns of population growth and change reflect differences among regions to attract and retain people both as producers and consumers in their economy. The following graphs offer a broad overview of trends in the pattern of population growth and change of Baca County with comparisons to Colorado and the nation at large. This analysis features alternative approaches toward discussing, diagnosing and comparing Baca County vs. Colorado's population growth over 1969-2022. The data used are those compiled by the Regional Income and Product Divisions of the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce. Population, 1969-2022 Figure 1. Figure 1 tracks Baca County's annual population for the period 1969-2022 to illustrate population patterns over time. During this 54-year period, Baca County's population dropped from 5,800 in 1969 to 3,432 in 2022, for a net loss of -2,368, or -40.83%. NOTE: The county and state population totals reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) are from the Bureau of Census midyear (July 1) estimates. These estimates may differ from those prepared independently in some states by various agencies and/or universities. Population, 1969-2022 Figure 2. Figure 2 tracks Colorado's annual population for the period 1969-2022 to illustrate population patterns over time. During this 54-year period, Colorado's population rose from 2,166,000 in 1969 to 5,839,926 in 2022, for a net gain of 3,673,926, or 169.62%. NOTE: The county and state population totals reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) are from the Bureau of Census midyear (July 1) estimates. These estimates may differ from those prepared independently in some states by various agencies and/or universities. Population Indices (1969=100): 1969-2022 Figure 3. Figure 3 portrays Baca County's population growth in a broader context by offering direct comparisons across time with Colorado, the United States. The growth indices shown here express each region's population in 1969 as a base figure of 100, and the populations in later years as a percentage of the 1969 base figure. This method allows for more direct comparison of differences in population growth between regions that may differ vastly in size. Baca County's overall population growth was -40.83% over 1969-2022 trailed Colorado's increase of 169.62%, and fell below the United States' increase of 65.57%. Population as a Percent of the Colorado Total: 1969-2022 Figure 4. Another interesting and insightful way of contrasting the population growth of Baca County is to trace its individual percentage contributions to Colorado's statewide population over time, as shown in Figure 4. A rising share means a region's population grew faster, or declined less, than Colorado's population, while a declining share shows it grew more slowly. In 1969, Baca County's population totaled 0.27% of Colorado's population, while in 2022 it totaled 0.06% thereby yielding a -0.21% share-shift.
Baca County Population: Annual Percent Change, 1970-2022 Figure 5. Figure 5 displays the short-run pattern of Baca County's population growth by tracking the year-to-year percent change over 1970-2022. The average annual percent change for the entire 53-year period is also traced on this chart to provide a benchmark for gauging periods of relative high--and relative low--growth against the backdrop of the long-term average. On average, Baca County's population contracted at an annual rate of -0.97% over 1970-2022. The county posted its highest growth in 1975 (2.77%) and recorded its lowest growth in 2003 (-5.05%). In 2022, Baca County's population declined by -1.58% Baca County Population: Annual Percent Change and Decade Averages Over 1970-2022 Figure 6. Over the past five decades some counties have experienced extreme swings in growth, and often such swings have tended to coincide with the decades themselves. Figure 6 again depicts the annual percent change in Baca County's population since 1970, but this time they are overlayed with average growth rates for the decade of the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, 2010s, and 2020-2022. During the 1970s, Baca County's annual population growth rate averaged -0.58%. It averaged -1.40% throughout the 1980s, -0.37% in the 1990s, -1.89% during the 2000s, -0.57% in the 2010s, -1.17% thus far this decade (2020-2022). Population Growth: Average Annual Percent Change by Decade Figure 7. Figure 7 compares the decade average growth rates for Baca County noted in the previous graph with the corresponding decade averages for Colorado and the nation. As the chart reveals, Baca County's average annual population growth amounted to less than Colorado's average in the 1970s (-0.58% vs. 2.78%), lagged Colorado's average throughout the 1980s (-1.40% vs. 1.41%), trailed Colorado's average throughout the 1990s (-0.37% vs. 2.58%), amounted to less than Colorado's average during the 2000s (-1.89% vs. 1.64%), posted below Colorado's average throughout the 2010s (-0.57% vs. 1.44%), and trailed Colorado's average over the 3 year period of the current decade, 2020-2022 (-1.17% vs. 0.60%). Finally, relative to nationwide population growth trends, Baca County lagged the nation over the 1970s (-0.58% vs. 1.10%), lagged the nation during the 1980s (-1.40% vs. 0.95%), lagged the nation during the 1990s (-0.37% vs. 1.23%), fell under the nation in the 2000s (-1.89% vs. 0.95%), posted below the nation in the 2010s (-0.57% vs. 0.74%), and trailed the nation over 2020-2022 (-1.17% vs. 0.31%).
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